U.S. Election Insights
November 18, 2024
Now that the U.S. presidential election results are in, you may be wondering how it affects your investments. Here are some key points to consider:
Impact of the Presidency on Markets
While the president can influence trade policies and shift inflation expectations, the real driver of stock market returns are corporate earnings and long-term economic policies enacted by Congress.
Historical Perspective
Since 1926, there’s been no consistent pattern in market performance tied to whether a Republican or Democrat wins the presidency. The monthly market returns during election months show no clear trend.
Perhaps even more tellingly, average annual returns during and after presidential election years have been fairly similar, although they can vary widely:
Long-Term Returns
Most importantly, markets reward long-term disciplined investors, regardless of who occupies the White House:
Key Takeaways
- Election Year Patterns: It's challenging to predict market returns based on election year outcomes.
- Positive Returns: While the future is unknown, historically, markets performed well during election years and in the following year.
- Market Pricing: Studies have shown that stock prices factor in aggregate investor election expectations prior to the election.
- Manage Uncertainty: There will always be market uncertainties. Diversification is a smart way to manage risk while aiming for good returns.
- Stay Disciplined: Stick to your long-term investment plan and avoid short-term speculation.